(The following does not represent an accurate and true representation of my thinking.)
I believe gold prices will fall hard between now and the US election in November 2016.
- The US congress has shown remarkable progress in reducing both the annual deficit and the total national debt and may balance the budget in 2016. Consequently, gold prices will fall much further as we approach the election in 2016. Their fiscal accountability and balanced budgets are NOT supportive of higher gold prices.
- China has imported a massive quantity of gold, both for private individuals and their central bank, but they will probably dump most of that gold when the price gets back above $1,500. Look out below!
- The European Union has sworn off “printing money,” bailouts, bail-ins, and increased sovereign debts. Fiscal responsibility, reduced debt, and political integrity are all hazardous to gold prices.
- The Japanese economy has turned around, their massive debt is NOT a problem, and everything looks like cherry blossoms for the next 20 years. Expect Japanese bonds, stocks, and the Yen to remain strong, and that should force gold to weaken considerably.
- The “land of milk and honey” is just “over the hill.” Good times are coming again. The politicians on several continents have told us so, and they have a long track record of accountability and veracity. The more we trust politicians the more we know gold prices will fall.
- Goldman Sxxx research says that gold is likely to go down in price, and we all know Goldman is fair and objective. We can trust what they publish.
- All the gold in Fort Knox is still there. Audits once per century are like totally enough to confirm no gold is missing, leased, sold, hypothecated, otherwise encumbered, or imaginary. When will people stop beating this dead horse? People will eventually get the point – all the gold is really, truly, absolutely, for sure there – and then gold prices will plunge. Really!
- Germany requested the return of 300 of their 1,500 tons officially stored at the NY Federal Reserve. They were promised the 300 tons would be delivered right away – as in seven years. So far Germany has received about 5 tons. So far, so good! No problem here! The remaining 295 tons are being loaded onto transport planes as we speak…… When the news is announced that German gold has been returned, the price of gold will probably plummet.
- Russia and the US are moving troops, toppling governments, killing people, and playing war games as a political distraction from the real issue – Putin and Obama don’t want people to realize they are actually friends. All this Ukraine nonsense is just a diversion. Nothing to see here folks, move on and watch the newest episode of “Dancing with The Eurocrats.” When it becomes widely known that Putin and Obama are mutual admirers, I expect gold prices will fall hard. If somebody bombs something in the meantime, JP Morgxxx will sell a few hundred tons of paper gold in 12 seconds overnight on the COMEX and slam the price of paper gold down.
- The unemployment rate in the US dropped again, per assurances from the BLS. Even though fewer Americans seem to be employed each month, the unemployment rate drops because of statistical magic. I think tax revenues will increase, entitlement benefits will decrease, and budget deficits will vanish, all thanks to statistical magic. I heard that Harry Potter works at the BLS! Fortunately, declining unemployment, reduced benefits for Social Security and Medicare, smaller deficits, and decreasing government pensions are all supportive of lower gold prices.
- News Alert! Just in – the White House announced a new retirement plan for average Americans. You send money, we spend it, congress guarantees you’ll like it. What could go wrong? Oops, more bearish news for gold prices.
And so, ladies and gentlemen, it is perfectly clear that gold prices are headed south – and in a big way. For those of you who trust pictures, I have included a graph of gold prices since 1975. As you can see – it is perfectly clear – repeat – PERFECTLY CLEAR – gold prices have NOWHERE to go but down, down, down.
Let me repeat two important points:
- You can trust Goldman, our governments, and this analysis.
- Gold prices must go down for all the above reasons.
I rest my case! Things are good, actually improving, and gold is headed down to about $400 per ounce. Of course, gasoline and food prices have been steadily increasing for the last 15 years, well actually for 100 years, but they are almost certain to go back down next month – or 2nd half at the latest.
You can take that to the bank!
aka Deviant Investor
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