Russian Roulette – Derivative Style

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Gary Christenson - Deviant Investor

Russian Roulette: Put one bullet in the cylinder of a revolver, spin the cylinder, point the gun at YOUR head, and pull the trigger. Most revolvers have 6 chambers, so your odds of surviving are 5 in 6, IF you quit after pulling the trigger once.

Press your luck, spin the cylinder, point the gun, and pull the trigger again. It might be okay. Try for a third time?

Now play Russian Roulette – Derivative Style

Note: I have no insider knowledge regarding derivatives, so I am merely speculating. But I think we can assume the following:

  • Total face value of unregulated derivative contracts is something around 1,000 Trillion dollars – depending on who is counting and who is lying.
  • Banks (Goldman, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, etc.) sell these contracts because they generate huge commissions and probably other long-term profits.
  • Wall Street banks poured mega-bucks into DC lobbyists to keep the derivative game running with minimal regulation and oversight. Obscene profits, not the public good, are the reason.
  • Except for commissions upfront, derivatives are supposedly a zero sum game. I win, you lose, and the bank gets a fee. It sounds like a bookie in Las Vegas. You put up $1.1 Billion to win $1.0 Billion. Somebody wins, somebody loses, and the casinos (derivative banks) take the $100 Million as a fee – roughly 5% of every dollar bet on either side.
  • Let’s be trusting and assume the derivative banks only take 1%, not 5%. If the notional value of derivative contracts is $1,000 Trillion and the fee is only 1%, the cumulative take for the banks writing contracts was $10 Trillion. That is a lot of CEO bonuses.
  • Even if the commission was one-tenth of a percent, the take was $1 Trillion in fees.
  • Eventually the system must fail, as commissions and fees suck capital out of the system each time a contract is written. More leverage and more indebtedness will not improve an unsustainable system.
  • But fees are collected as contracts are written, bonuses are paid, and taxpayers (via bail-outs) or depositors (via bail-ins) might have to cover the losses. Remember TARP and the Cyprus bail-ins!

Another Trigger Pull!

  • Nothing goes wrong – no crash, no bank failures, no government default. This is unlikely and more so each day.
  • Banks continue writing derivative contracts because… they can and why would they stop? Let’s guess another $1,000 Trillion each decade in new contracts.
  • Banks collect a commission that generates perhaps $1 Trillion or more in fees; this is $1 Trillion (or maybe much more) sucked out of the financial system each decade – and it produced nothing. It reminds me of the phrase, “the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer.”

Implications

  • In ideal circumstances, there is no crash, no bank failures, and all debts get paid.
  • But derivatives suck a huge amount of capital out of the global economies each year, and that makes ideal circumstances increasingly difficult to maintain. Instead of paying banker bonuses, that capital could be used for constructive projects.
  • The financial system is unlikely to continue operating under ideal circumstances. When another 2008 crisis arrives, the supposed zero sum game, less commissions of course, becomes a black hole of daisy-chained obligations that might collapse the American, European, and Asian financial systems. It has happened before.
  • The resulting financial and social chaos will not be pretty!

Got gold? Own silver? They are financial insurance, unless you trust that Wall Street will take care of your needs.

Read: Bill Holter: Precious Metals 101 with One Obvious Assumption

Read: Michael Snyder: The Size Of The Derivatives Bubble Hanging Over The Global Economy Hits A Record High

Read: SRSrocco Report: Precious Metals Manipulation Isn’t Hidden, It’s Right In Front Of Your Eyes

 

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

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2 thoughts on “Russian Roulette – Derivative Style

  1. You are confusing money (currency, actually) with capital. So, you think that the capital is shrinking because the bank commissions are removing it from the system? Hey, the Fed increased the monetary base by some $10 trillion, so “capital” is obviously expanding, not shrinking.

    Not to mention that the CEOs aren’t burning their bonuses – they are spending and investing them. So, whatever they “take” from the system, in toto, doesn’t actually leave the system.

    Not to mention that if you were right (which you aren’t), it would result in massive deflation and gold (and other asset prices) will suffer greatly.

    It is amazing that people like you who don’t have the slightest clue how things actually work have the chutzpah to advise their readers on financial matters.


    • Thanks for stopping by to make your usual critical comments. I’ll skip most of your confusion about capital, currency, and the system and just ask you a few questions.

      1) If I pay workers $1,000,000,000 to dig ditches, and then refill those ditches, have we added any benefit to the economy?

      2) Could that $1 Billion have been better spent on energy production, roads, bridges, education, health care etc?

      3) Even though the $1 Billion is still in the system, as you say, and the workers spent the $1 Billion, was anything accomplished? Where did the $1 Billion come from? Could it have been used more productively elsewhere?

      4) You said that the Fed increased the monetary base by $10 Trillion so capital was expanding, not shrinking. It sounds like you think this was a good thing to do. If so, let’s go full Zimbabwe and create $10 Trillion for every household and make it even better. More capital for everyone! Much more of the good thing you seem to want….. Really?

      As for which one of us does not have the slightest clue about how things work, I’ll leave that judgement to other readers.

      Thanks for your comment. I’m looking forward to your next criticisms.

      GE Christenson
      aka Deviant Investor


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