Silver: Train Leaving Station Soon!

 

Silver prices are rising along the bottom of a 20 year log scale trend channel (shown later). There are no guarantees in a manipulated paper market, such as COMEX silver, but it is possible that silver prices will collapse further, or more likely, move substantially higher, sooner rather than later.

Silver prices COULD fall from their current level of $16 – $17 to under $10. Other events that COULD occur include:

You could win the Powerball Lottery.

The U.S. congress could balance the budget and reduce debt.

The Federal Reserve could apologize for destroying the dollar.

President Putin and Hillary could sing “Kumbaya” together.

The Middle-East could ascend into a century of peace.

And it is possible that silver prices could drop under $10.

But realistically, we know:

 

  1. The Federal Reserve has devalued the dollar for over a century and is openly advocating for at least 2% inflation – more devaluation. Expect continuing declines in the purchasing power of the dollar.
  2. The U.S. congress, the President, the military, thousands of military contractors, the medical/health/sick care system, and millions of people collecting Social Security do NOT want spending decreased. Expect more spending, deficits, ever-increasing debt, and of course, more consumer price inflation. Silver prices will rise.
  3. Silver prices have risen exponentially for the past 90 years as the dollar has been consistently devalued. Expect continued silver price rises. See log scale graph below.

SILVER TO GOLD RATIO:

 

Examine the silver to gold ratio for the past 27 years. Low silver to gold ratios indicate long-term buy zones for silver. Silver prices are there now.

How High Will Silver Prices Rise?

 

The answer depends upon many variables. A partial list includes:

  1. COMEX silver prices are “managed” by large players, including JPM, which previously have wanted silver prices to remain low. That may be changing. Read Ted Butler.
  2. How rapidly will the Fed and commercial banking increase the supply of dollars and how much will they devalue the dollar?
  3. How extreme will our political circus become? Distractions will be necessary. The usual response is war after a suitable scapegoat has been identified.
  4. “False Flag” operations may direct blame and attention away from policy failures and toward some “common enemy.” Wars increase silver prices.
  5. When will U.S. citizens lose confidence in the dollar?
  6. How rapidly will foreign countries including China, Russia and Saudi Arabia redirect commerce away from the dollar?
  7. Hyper-inflation or 1970s style inflation?
  8. Rise of the IMF and Special Drawing Rights as a global currency?

SUMMARY:

 

Silver prices for the next decade are dependent upon many unknowns. However, a conservative chart interpretation is shown below.

The log trend channel has contained most silver prices for the past 20 years. A “more of the same” financial world suggests silver prices will rise toward $100 in the next 5 – 7 years.

A more aggressive chart interpretation shows prices for silver peaks rising rapidly during the past 17 years.

A blow-off rally in silver – quite possible – suggests silver prices rallying toward $200 – $300 per ounce. For comparison, Bitcoin was $3 a few years ago and recently exceeded $1,700. Amazon stock sold for about a buck 20 years ago. Today it is near $1,000. Silver near $200 is not impossible in a few years.

CONCLUSIONS:

 

  • Silver prices have risen exponentially for 90 years as the dollar has been devalued. Expect further devaluation and higher silver prices.
  • There are many financial and political catalysts that could propel silver prices well over $100.
  • A conservative graphical interpretation shows $100 silver within a few years.
  • A “blow-off” graphical interpretation shows $200 – $300 silver is possible in a few years.
  • If the powers-that-be create or can’t stop hyper-inflation of the dollar, $500 silver will look inexpensive by the end of next decade.
  • It is difficult to look beyond our “normalcy bias” and consider the possibility that the DOW could drop more than 50%, like it did in the 2008 crisis, or silver could increase in price by over a factor of 30, like it did from 1971 – 1980.
  • Read Steve St. Angelo: Amazing Leverage in Silver Market.
  • Read “Silver and Gold Find Support.”
  • The “silver train” has not left the station … yet.

Gary Christenson

The Deviant Investor

7 thoughts on “Silver: Train Leaving Station Soon!


  1. Ugh. I have a huge, 17 year hoard of the white metal….these non-stop, yearly pontifications on silver zooming to an inevitable multihundred/oz price has become wearisome, period



    • If you’ve been buying silver for 17 yrs then your average cost basis should be quite low. Much lower than $16-17. STFU DONNY! (credit to Big Lebowski)


  2. So long as COMEX and LBMA are allowed to fix prices, we will never
    see genuine price discovery in the West.
    Jim Willie just reported Dubai buying AU @ over $2000 an ounce.

    Only when the Ashkenazi counterfeiting syndicate dies will we see
    real price discovery…

    What a sad state of affairs when your rooting for Russia and China to defeat your own government.


  3. Here’s my concern about the Consolidation into a single currency & perhaps even electronic currency.

    The “Chief Thimble-Rig Authority” all in charge in keeping over-sight on this skulduggery MAKES THEIR MONEY off of currency manipulations & the ebb-&-flow of sucker rallies in the markets.

    This same “Chief Thimble-Rig Authority” also makes money off of the black-market trading of the USD as pitted against other currencies like the Yuan or the Dinar or the Euro.

    Why on earth would the “Chief Thimble-Rig Authority” want or need to crash, consolidate, bring-above-board, or electronic-ise their own perpetrated money-making scheme & game??…..

    My apologies, but If I’ve got a good thing going-on in perpetuity?? I’m certainly not inclined to over-turn the game-table & walk away saying “I Win, you lose”. Thoughts?


    • I’m not in favor of a single currency, but I see it as a possibility. Why would “they” kick the table over and walk? It makes sense to me that the powers-that-be will not, unless they see no other options. As you say, they make money playing the current game. Why change? Only if they must …

      The Deviant Investor


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