What Nick Taleb Has To Say Applies

From Nicholas Migiliaccio, denaliguide1@gmail.com




            Thinking you are not taking risks, based on the judgement of others, is tantamount to taking on their risks, i.e. Glencore, as an “Investment Grade” stock, a specific asset class always “assumed” to be “Safe”.  So when you assume a position based on being SAFE, you in-fact assume the risks of the people who SAY it is safe, unless they are known liars.

There is a nice article on that by Charles Hugh-Smith where he makes it clear that whatever you do, YOU RISK at the rate in force then.  Thus you can deny risk by masking it, but you really can’t change it.  Doing nothing may actually be more dangerous than the action you may have contemplated.


Based on the directional movement of the MATERIALS ETF SPYDER it was clear, far in advance, that the sector was going to be the BLACK SWAN.  Obviously the Breadth Oscillator moves in anticipation of the price.   Volume moves that way as well, but not so demonstrably.  So given this state of events, “Who ya gonna call? Ghost Busters?!”    It would be a stretch to say that Nick Taleb “endorses” TA, but you must think he likes when it is prescient, despite naysayers.

 The information and opinions posted here are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. Investment and speculative decisions are properly supported by Due Diligence and proper support, and the author assumes no responsibility for any private investment decisions.



             Near and dear to Nick Taleb’s core,  the BLACK SWAN can only be ID’d after the fact of their existence and non-conformity is understood, which therefore, makes declaring something a “BLACK SWAN”, less of an instant event.

Therefore, Russia’s overt entry into the Syria Conflict is not a Black Swan.  It may tip the scales but it is not something unpredictable.  In that vein it is or was an “Unknown, Known”.  While there may come any number of “Unknown” developments, in fact they will be “Unknown, Knowns”, since at least the first three steps of each one could be gamed out for a quick look.

What we face now is like Mt. St. Helens before it blew.  All the seismic teams are out there, signals coming fast and furious and “nothing yet”.  Well so true.  Everything is AWESOME till it blows up!!!  You know, like you may not see the courtesy light go out in your car, but you know it stays on till it goes out.

So, therefore, you know I cannot tell you any particular event that will happen or its timing.

What we know is that the system is insolvent and will limp along till it blows up and then goes under.  The questions for you will be where and what.  Where will you be and how situated, and what will you have to help you ride out this storm.



From a long term perspective we see a couple Red/Blue Crossovers in place.

The most important was this summer, which kicks off this rally.  This Index can reach +120 so at 40+, we have a lot of running room.    Except for short term swing trades, I maintain my BUY Posture until we enter a NO BUY ZONE, and have no Sell Instructions, until other measures fall out of Upside Extended Zones, which are featured in Peak Picks.

As to qualifying this move as “The Big One,” I defer to others who call such things.  I call this one “The Pivotal One.”   Not knowing how the Opposition Forces will play this one, I feel safe in saying “Things have Changed” in direction that I don’t feel THEY can change anymore.  That said, it does NOT mean THEY cannot affect this advance in some way without stopping it.  Caution is always advised, but as this moment arrived there were at least two decisive places my Scale-In identified as Buy Zones for the purposes of a 3 Point Scale In program.  Again this specific info is in Peak Picks on a continuing basis as well as 3 different Lists of Stocks with which to play this advance.

From a standpoint of risk, sometimes late entry creates risk with higher entry levels.  In truth, without the constant fear of manipulation by intervention, late entries caused by fear thru previous intimidation, allows your stops to be run more easily, which, of course, is why I like mental stops.  Blog


From Nicholas Migiliaccio, denaliguide1@gmail.com